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Lesson 7 of 85 min

The verifier: picks that cannot be rewritten

Odds are captured by the server at publication and results are settled automatically. How to read the tipster rating and why ROI without CLV says little.

Picks on the internet are almost always useless for one reason: their history cannot be checked. Successful screenshots survive, unsuccessful ones vanish, and the odds are quoted from memory. The verifier is built so that this trick does not work.

What exactly gets locked

  • The odds are taken by the server from the chosen bookmaker’s line at the moment of publication — not from the author’s word.
  • The publication time is stamped by the server. A pick submitted after kick-off is not accepted at all.
  • The result is settled automatically from match statistics.
  • Deleting or editing a published pick is impossible.

The locking mechanism is explained in the article on closing picks before kick-off.

How to read the rating

In the tipster rating, read in this order:

  1. Number of settled bets. Under a hundred, it is too early to read anything else.
  2. CLV. The average gap between the publication odds and the odds at kick-off. Positive CLV means the author takes a price ahead of the market. It is the only metric that works on a small sample — see the article on CLV.
  3. ROI. Profit on turnover. Read it last: over a short stretch it is almost entirely luck.
  4. Average odds. An ROI of +5% at odds of 1.2 and at odds of 4.0 are very different achievements.

The exact admission rules and edge-case handling are in the rating methodology.

What verification does not guarantee

It proves the history is genuine. It does not prove the author will be successful from here. A confirmed past record and future profit are different things, and the first does not promise the second.

Where to look

Upcoming matches with picks are in the verifier’s matches section. Picks for a specific match appear directly on its page on the main site.

Next

The last lesson — what to do next: a short route through the site for your particular use case.

What to remember

The value is not in the picks but in the impossibility of faking their history. Look at the number of settled bets and at CLV before you look at ROI.