Referee model
Not averages but an adjustment to expectation: how many times a given referee shifts the forecast for cards, penalties and fouls relative to their league baseline — with the sample size stated honestly.
How to read the adjustment
The adjustment shows not the referee's average number of cards, but how many times stricter or more lenient they are than the baseline of their own competitions — the same leagues and seasons they actually worked in. Right means stricter, left means more lenient. With a sample under 25 matches the adjustment is shrunk toward the league baseline: at those numbers the difference is not yet distinguishable from chance.
Referee
R. Hennessey
UEFA Europa Conference League
J. Pinheiro
UEFA Europa Conference League
J. I. Jonsson
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
J. Burgos
Primera División
I. N. Mendez Chavez
Copa de la División Profesional
E. Ostojich
Primera División
V. Rivas
Leagues Cup
I. O. Kristjansson
UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification
N. Bensalah
USL League One Cup
Bryan Loayza, Ecuador
Liga Pro
S. Karabaev
UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification
Leandro Rey Hilfer, Argentina
Liga Profesional Argentina
M. De Armas
CONMEBOL - U17
J. Benitez
Division Profesional - Clausura
J. Jaanovits
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
X. Wang
League Two
H. Heras
Primera División
J. Valenzuela
Pro League
E. Malcevs
UEFA Europa Conference League
H. M. Jonasson
UEFA Europa Conference League
Cristian Garay, Chile
Primera División
B. Csonka
UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification
B. Sariev
UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification
N. Walsh
League Cup
Average
Adjustment to the competition baseline
Metric
Baseline
Referee
Adjustment
×
Yellows per match
база 4.59
4.57
1.00
Penalties per match
база 0.28
0.27
0.99
Fouls per card
база 5.6
5.5
0.99
Reds per 10 matches
база 6.7
8.46
1.17
Stoppage time
база 6.4
6.1
0.97
stricter than baseline
more lenient than baseline
42 matches
· interval ±0.68 cards · baseline: 2430 competition matches
Model verdict
On cards the referee does not differ from the baseline of their competitions — no adjustment to expectation is needed.
Who the referee is stricter with
To home teams
×0.75
1.73
Yellows to home teams per match against half of the per-match average
To away teams
×0.89
2.04
Yellows to away teams per match against half of the per-match average
Second half
×1.30
2.24
Yellows in the second half against half of the per-match average
Rough matches
×1.65
4.95
Matches with fouls above the median against the rest
Link to this referee
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