Referee model

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Referee model

Not averages but an adjustment to expectation: how many times a given referee shifts the forecast for cards, penalties and fouls relative to their league baseline — with the sample size stated honestly.

How to read the adjustment

The adjustment shows not the referee's average number of cards, but how many times stricter or more lenient they are than the baseline of their own competitions — the same leagues and seasons they actually worked in. Right means stricter, left means more lenient. With a sample under 25 matches the adjustment is shrunk toward the league baseline: at those numbers the difference is not yet distinguishable from chance.

Referee

J. Pinheiro

Primeira Liga · Serie B · Serie A · since 2025 · 42 matches in the sample

Average

Adjustment to the competition baseline

Metric Baseline Referee Adjustment ×

Yellows per match база 4.59 4.57 1.00

Penalties per match база 0.28 0.27 0.99

Fouls per card база 5.6 5.5 0.99

Reds per 10 matches база 6.7 8.46 1.17

Stoppage time база 6.4 6.1 0.97

stricter than baseline more lenient than baseline 42 matches · interval ±0.68 cards · baseline: 2430 competition matches

Model verdict

On cards the referee does not differ from the baseline of their competitions — no adjustment to expectation is needed.

Who the referee is stricter with

To home teams ×0.75

1.73

Yellows to home teams per match against half of the per-match average

To away teams ×0.89

2.04

Yellows to away teams per match against half of the per-match average

Second half ×1.30

2.24

Yellows in the second half against half of the per-match average

Rough matches ×1.65

4.95

Matches with fouls above the median against the rest

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