A trend here is a run: “the team has scored in 7 matches in a row”, “their last 5 matches went over 2.5 goals”, “this referee has shown 4+ cards in 6 straight games”. It is computed over completed matches and refreshed after every round.
Where to find them
Trends exist at three levels: inside a match, on a team page, and as a standalone view — the trend deck and trend runs by league, where you can search for runs across all upcoming matches at once.
The main mistake
A long run looks convincing, and that is precisely the danger. Sift dozens of indicators across hundreds of teams and a seven-match run is guaranteed to appear — simply because there are so many combinations. That is not a pattern, it is a property of arithmetic.
There is one test: does the run have an explanation independent of the run itself? “The team has conceded in 6 straight matches” is an observation. “The team has conceded in 6 straight matches because both centre-backs are injured” is a cause, and a cause keeps working. The first means nothing on its own; the second means something.
Where trends work best
On markets with many events — corners, fouls, cards. There a run usually reflects something stable: playing style, a particular referee’s habits, tactics against a certain type of opponent. Such things change slowly.
On match results trends are weaker: too much is decided by chance in a single game. A winning run often means only that the fixture list was kind.
“The trend is due to end” is also a mistake
The reverse reasoning is no better: “five overs in a row, so an under is due”. Matches do not remember previous ones. If a run has a cause it will continue; if it has none, it never was anything.
Using them in practice
- Found a run — look for the explanation in the team’s statistics, not in the run itself.
- Check whether it rests on matches against obviously weak opposition.
- Compare with the odds: if the market has already noticed the run, the price includes it.
Next
Referees — the case where one individual moves a market more than both teams combined.
A trend describes the past, not the future. Sift enough indicators and a long run will always turn up — the valuable one is the run that has an explanation.