Primeira Liga
Regular Season - 4 | 2026 | Portugal
xG 0.83
2.10
Overview
Statistics, predictions, and trends for the match
Live center
Match statistics, events, and team lineups
Coefficients
Comparison of bookmaker odds by market and loads
Probabilities
Bet probabilities based on a sample of teams, referee and head-to-head history
Teams
Detailed Smart Tables with Filters
Referee
Referee stats with filters for cards and corners
AI match predictions
AI prediction for this match is in this tab
Personal Meetings
Head 2 Head matches statistics between teams
AI-model
Independent of bookmaker odds
Match forecast
35%
confidence
Main prediction
Nacional or draw
Most likely outcome — Draw (X)
Outcome distribution
probability
1
Nacional
35%
X
Draw
35%
2
Estrela
30%
Totals prediction
Total · Nacional
Under 3.5
home team's goals
Total · Estrela
Under 2.5
away team's goals
Combo bet
Double chance : Nacional or draw
Comparison with the Poisson model
AI model estimate
Nacional
100%
Estrela
0%
Meeting Statistics
Average figures for head-to-head meetings
Metric
Home
Away
Avg. goals per match
2.2
2.5
Avg. corners per match
10.08
7.78
Avg. yellow cards per match
5.75
5.67
Avg. red cards per match
0
0
Key trends
↓Nacional: In 6 matches in a row, a total of no more than 4 goals is scored
↓Nacional: In 8 matches in a row, the total number of yellow cards has not risen above 6
↓Nacional: 20 matches in a row, no red card has been shown to either the team or their opponents
↓Nacional: Judging by recent matches, Nacional" sometimes wins, sometimes loses, sometimes draws — everything is unstable
Brief Overview
Nacional will face Estrela 30.08.2026 as the home team. The referee appointed for this match is Carlos Macedo, Portugal. The teams' matches against each other have taken place in the following leagues and cups: Primeira Liga, Segunda Liga, Friendlies Clubs. We can analyze how the match will go, since the teams have already played each other over 5 last seasons. The favorites in this match are the home team. For a win by Nacional the odds are just 2.34.
Picks on the match
verifier
Picks are locked before kick-off, the odds come from the reference line
Author consensus
verifier
1 prediction from 1 author · how the locked picks are spread across markets
Average odds
2.42
Average CLV
+0.41%
Agreement
100%
Match result: 1
1 pick · 100%
Market ROI -5.5%
Match sections
Game Review →
Statistics, predictions, and trends for the match
Live center and statistics →
Match statistics, events, and team lineups
Coefficients →
Comparison of bookmaker odds by market and loads
Probabilities →
Bet probabilities based on a sample of teams, referee and head-to-head history
Team statistics →
Detailed Smart Tables with Filters
Referee statistics →
Referee stats with filters for cards and corners
AI prediction →
The model's prediction for this match's outcome and totals
Personal Meetings →
Head-to-head history and sample probabilities
Match Statistics
Goals
211% from average (0.95)
2
3
222% from average (1.35)
Expected goals (xG)
75% from average (1.11)
0.83
2.1
133% from average (1.58)
Possession
106% from average (48.33)
51%
49%
107% from average (45.67)
Corners
83% from average (4.83)
4
3
104% from average (2.89)
Yellow cards
73% from average (2.75)
2
1
33% from average (3)
73% from average (4.11)
Red cards
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
- from average (0)
Fouls
88% from average (13.67)
12
9
67% from average (13.44)
77% from average (27.17)
Shots on goal
69% from average (14.5)
10
14
126% from average (11.11)
Shots on target
113% from average (4.42)
5
4
92% from average (4.33)
Shots off target
36% from average (5.5)
2
8
164% from average (4.89)
Blocked shots
64% from average (4.67)
3
2
106% from average (1.89)
Shots from inside the box
47% from average (8.5)
4
9
127% from average (7.11)
Shots from outside the box
100% from average (6)
6
5
125% from average (4)
Passes
114% from average (359)
410
390
109% from average (356.22)
Successful passes
120% from average (281)
337
319
112% from average (283.67)
Pass accuracy
106% from average (77.42)
82%
82%
104% from average (78.89)
Attacks
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Dangerous attacks
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Offsides
100% from average (1)
1
1
47% from average (2.11)
Saves
30% from average (3.33)
1
3
104% from average (2.89)
Substitutions
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Goal kicks
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Attempts to score
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Free kicks
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Throw-ins
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Safe play with the ball
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Match Progress
The match has begun - the first half is underway
0
:0
Goal
3’
Wesley Gasolina
1
:0
Substitution
40’
M. Djalo
F. Soares
Penalty
45’
I. Stoica
1
:1
Yellow Card
45’
Ze Vitor
Penalty
45’+1’
I. Stoica
1
:2
Yellow Card
45’+1’
Ze Vitor
The match has continued - the second half is underway
1
:2
Yellow Card
48’
Williams Kokolo
Goal
62’
A. Marcus
1
:3
Goal
66’
Pablo Ruan
2
:3
Substitution
67’
Joan Jordan
Robinho
Substitution
69’
S. Gavriel
Daniel Junior
Substitution
69’
A. Obando
Pablo Ruan
Substitution
69’
S. Gavriel
Daniel Junior
Substitution
69’
A. Obando
Pablo Ruan
Substitution
72’
B. Souza
I. Stoica
Substitution
78’
M. Jensen
W. Kokolo
Substitution
79’
M. Jensen
W. Kokolo
Substitution
79’
D. I. de la Cruz
Wesley Gasolina
Goal
83’
L. Antonetti
2
:4
Yellow Card
86’
Leandro Antonetti
Substitution
89’
Bernardo Schappo
G. Doue
Match Completed
2
:3
Formation · 3-4-2-1
Nacional
99
Pablo Ruan
10
Daniel Junior
8
M. Baeza
21
W. Kokolo
22
F. Soares
28
Liziero
52
Wesley Gasolina
38
Ze Vitor
6
Matheus Dias
34
Leo Santos
1
R. Marin
Formation · 4-3-3
Estrela
10
I. Stoica
37
L. Antonetti
99
A. Marcus
8
Robinho
39
G. Doue
14
L. Zvonarek
55
Rafa Soares
5
S. Lekovic
30
Luan Patrick
21
M. Scholze
24
Leo Linck
Starting lineups
#
Player
#
Player
Substitutions
#
Player
17
F. Nava
~
~
~
~
#
Player
These are the odds for the match Nacional - Estrela 30.08.2026
Find the best odds and evaluate the dynamics of betting loads. We offer pre-match odds. We show the top betting loads first, and then coefficients
These are bet probabilities based on the sample
Choose a sample source to see value odds for key markets
Sample source
Teams
Referee
Personal Meetings
Select a metric for analysis
Attack
Possession and style
Discipline
Defense
Goals
Shots on target
Shots on goal
Corners
Sample settings
Source: teams · sample 10 events · all seasons and leagues
Seasons and leagues
All available seasons
All available leagues
Number of events
5
10
15
20
50
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Bet Probabilities by Sample — Goals
Value odds for key markets based on the selected sample — teams.
These are detailed team statistics
We offer team statistics for 9 metrics. Fill in the filters below to see summary data for home and away
Statistics by half
1st half
5
7
2nd half
5
7
Result
10
14
Select a metric for analysis
Attack
Possession and style
Discipline
Defense
Goals
Shots on target
Shots on goal
Corners
Sample settings
Sample: 20 events · all seasons and leagues
Combined for both teams
All available seasons
All available leagues
Number of events
5
10
15
20
50
All
Nacional
Across all matches
Home only
Away only
All outcomes
Win
Loss
Draw
Estrela
Across all matches
Home only
Away only
All outcomes
Win
Loss
Draw
These are the referee's detailed match statistics Nacional - Estrela 30.08.2026
We offer referee statistics on 3 indicators. Fill in the filters below to see the summary data
Select a metric for analysis
Fouls
Yellow cards
Red cards
Sample settings
Sample: 20 events · all seasons and leagues
Seasons and leagues
All available seasons
All available leagues
Number of events
5
10
15
20
50
All
These are machine learning-based predictions (Machine Learning, ML)
ML predictions are an exclusive and unique feature of TheAnalytic. Our servers run special mathematical algorithms that calculate team strength and perform analysis based on pseudo-random event prediction algorithms. We don't take these predictions “somewhere”, we developed the system and implemented it ourselves, exclusively for our website. The algorithm uses machine learning technologies and conventional calculation methods. To help the community understand what we offer, we disclose the methodology in a separate article. Important! The match predictions we publish are not a call for betting and are intended solely for “highlight” You need matches or parameters for independent analysis. The ML system does not replace humans!
Select a market to show match predictions for
Goals total
1x2 goals
Corners total
1x2 corners
Fouls total
Cards total
Sample settings
All outcomes · any probability · any odds
Outcome
All outcomes
Total Under
Total Over
Probability range
Probability from 60 to 100
Any probability
Odds range
Odds from 1.3 to 6
Any odds
Bookmakers
Pinnacle
Bet365
1xBet
Fonbet
Match prediction value calculator
Thinking about your prediction for this match? Check the bookmaker's odds value using the calculator to determine whether a bet is worth making. The calculator will show the statistical probability of a winning bet and compare it to the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds. Learn more about how this tool works and become familiar with the algorithm for calculating the statistical rating.
These are detailed statistics of head-to-head meetings Nacional and Estrela before the match 30.08.2026
We offer team statistics for 9 metrics. Fill in the filters below to see summary data
Select a metric for analysis
Attack
Possession and style
Discipline
Defense
Goals
Shots on target
Shots on goal
Corners
Sample settings
Sample: 20 head-to-head meetings · all seasons and leagues
Seasons and leagues
All available seasons
All available leagues
Number of events
5
10
15
20
50
All
This tool will help you find the right trend for a match Nacional - Estrela 30.08.2026
This tool, based on the entered probability, will show the trend operating within that probability for teams, referees, and championships. Learn more about how this tool works