Real Madrid
W
W
W
W
W
Malaga
W
L
D
L
D
La Liga
Regular Season - 3 | 2026 | Spain
Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia
Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia
xG 2.62
0.71
Overview
Statistics, predictions, and trends for the match
Live center
Match statistics, events, and team lineups
Coefficients
Comparison of bookmaker odds by market and loads
Probabilities
Bet probabilities based on a sample of teams, referee and head-to-head history
Teams
Detailed Smart Tables with Filters
Referee
Referee stats with filters for cards and corners
AI match predictions
AI prediction for this match is in this tab
Personal Meetings
Head 2 Head matches statistics between teams
AI-model
Independent of bookmaker odds
Match forecast
50%
confidence
Main prediction
Real Madrid
Most likely outcome — Draw (X)
Outcome distribution
probability
1
Real Madrid
50%
X
Draw
50%
2
Malaga
0%
Totals prediction
Total · Real Madrid
Under 4.5
home team's goals
Total · Malaga
Under 1.5
away team's goals
Combo bet
Winner : Real Madrid
Comparison with the Poisson model
AI model estimate
Real Madrid
100%
Malaga
0%
Meeting Statistics
Average figures for head-to-head meetings
Metric
Home
Away
Avg. goals per match
3.4
3.45
Avg. corners per match
10.83
9.79
Avg. yellow cards per match
4.31
4.57
Avg. red cards per match
0
0
Key trends
↑Real Madrid: In 20 matches in a row, a total of no less than 1 goals is scored
↓Real Madrid: In 7 matches in a row, a total of no more than 5 goals is scored
↓Real Madrid: In 11 matches in a row, the total number of yellow cards has not risen above 6
↓Real Madrid: 20 matches in a row, no red card has been shown to either the team or their opponents
Brief Overview
Real Madrid will face Malaga 30.08.2026 as the home team. The referee appointed for this match is Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain. It is hard to predict the match because there is no recent head-to-head data. This will be the first meeting between the teams since 2017. The favorites in this match are the home team. For a win by Real Madrid the odds are just 1.08.
Picks on the match
verifier
Picks are locked before kick-off, the odds come from the reference line
Author consensus
verifier
2 picks from 2 authors · how the locked picks are spread across markets
Average odds
1.79
Average CLV
-2.37%
Agreement
50%
Corners over/under: Under 11.5
1 pick · 50%
Market ROI -18.4%
Total goals (match): Under 3.5
1 pick · 50%
Market ROI +9.9%
Match sections
Game Review →
Statistics, predictions, and trends for the match
Live center and statistics →
Match statistics, events, and team lineups
Coefficients →
Comparison of bookmaker odds by market and loads
Probabilities →
Bet probabilities based on a sample of teams, referee and head-to-head history
Team statistics →
Detailed Smart Tables with Filters
Referee statistics →
Referee stats with filters for cards and corners
AI prediction →
The model's prediction for this match's outcome and totals
Personal Meetings →
Head-to-head history and sample probabilities
Match Statistics
Goals
182% from average (2.2)
4
0
0% from average (1.9)
Expected goals (xG)
144% from average (1.82)
2.62
0.71
39% from average (1.83)
Possession
101% from average (55.38)
56%
44%
86% from average (51.43)
Corners
180% from average (5)
9
6
113% from average (5.29)
Yellow cards
0% from average (2)
0
2
97% from average (2.07)
44% from average (4.53)
Red cards
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
- from average (0)
Fouls
63% from average (9.54)
6
9
82% from average (10.93)
53% from average (28.29)
Shots on goal
127% from average (14.92)
19
14
101% from average (13.86)
Shots on target
117% from average (6.85)
8
1
21% from average (4.79)
Shots off target
79% from average (5.08)
4
7
149% from average (4.71)
Blocked shots
233% from average (3)
7
6
138% from average (4.36)
Shots from inside the box
146% from average (9.62)
14
6
62% from average (9.71)
Shots from outside the box
94% from average (5.31)
5
8
193% from average (4.14)
Passes
114% from average (523.38)
599
464
101% from average (459.86)
Successful passes
118% from average (466.38)
549
407
104% from average (390.57)
Pass accuracy
104% from average (88.77)
92%
88%
104% from average (84.36)
Attacks
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Dangerous attacks
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Offsides
74% from average (2.69)
2
1
48% from average (2.08)
Saves
32% from average (3.15)
1
4
127% from average (3.14)
Substitutions
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Goal kicks
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Attempts to score
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Free kicks
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Throw-ins
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Safe play with the ball
- from average (0)
0
0
- from average (0)
Match Progress
The match has begun - the first half is underway
0
:0
Goal
19’
J. Bellingham
1
:0
Goal
26’
J. Bellingham
2
:0
Own goal
26’
A. Herrero
3
:0
Goal
30’
K. Mbappe
4
:0
The match has continued - the second half is underway
4
:0
Substitution
46’
P. Martinez
R. Rodriguez
Substitution
60’
J. Salinas
C. Puga
Substitution
61’
J. Cruz
J. Munoz
Substitution
61’
J. Salinas
C. Puga
Substitution
61’
J. Salinas
C. Puga
Substitution
61’
J. Cruz
J. Munoz
Substitution
65’
Y. Diomande
B. Diaz
Yellow Card
66’
Chupete
Substitution
74’
H. Abaida
E. Galilea
Substitution
77’
B. Silva
F. Valverde
Substitution
87’
R. Enriquez
I. Merino
Substitution
87’
R. Enriquez
I. Merino
Substitution
87’
A. Guler
J. Bellingham
Substitution
87’
A. Guler
J. Bellingham
Goal
90’
A. Guler
5
:0
Goal
90’+1’
A. Guler
6
:0
Yellow Card
90’+3’
Ramón Enríquez
Match Completed
4
:0
Injuries and suspensions
Real Madrid
EM
Definitely will not play
Eder Militao
Hamstring Injury
FM
Definitely will not play
F. Mendy
Hip Injury
AT
Definitely will not play
A. Tchouameni
Muscle Injury
R
Definitely will not play
Rodrygo
Knee Injury
RA
Definitely will not play
R. Asencio
Muscle Injury
E
Definitely will not play
Endrick
Muscle Injury
TP
Definitely will not play
T. Pitarch
Knee Injury
Malaga
FC
Definitely will not play
F. Calero
Ribs Injury
DM
Definitely will not play
D. Murillo
Injury
MD
Definitely will not play
M. Diarra
Calf Injury
AN
Definitely will not play
A. Nino
Injury
AO
Definitely will not play
A. Ochoa
Knee Injury
Formation · 4-2-3-1
Real Madrid
10
K. Mbappe
7
Vinicius Junior
5
J. Bellingham
21
B. Diaz
6
E. Camavinga
8
F. Valverde
17
M. Cucurella
4
D. Huijsen
22
A. Rudiger
12
T. Alexander-Arnold
1
T. Courtois
Formation · 4-4-2
Malaga
8
C. Dotor
9
Chupe
11
J. Munoz
23
I. Merino
14
R. Rodriguez
10
D. Larrubia
31
Rafita
4
E. Galilea
15
A. Recio
3
C. Puga
1
A. Herrero
Starting lineups
#
Player
#
Player
Substitutions
#
Player
#
Player
These are the odds for the match Real Madrid - Malaga 30.08.2026
Find the best odds and evaluate the dynamics of betting loads. We offer pre-match odds. We show the top betting loads first, and then coefficients
These are bet probabilities based on the sample
Choose a sample source to see value odds for key markets
Sample source
Teams
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Personal Meetings
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Attack
Possession and style
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Sample settings
Source: teams · sample 10 events · all seasons and leagues
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Bet Probabilities by Sample — Goals
Value odds for key markets based on the selected sample — teams.
These are detailed team statistics
We offer team statistics for 9 metrics. Fill in the filters below to see summary data for home and away
Statistics by half
1st half
10
6
2nd half
9
8
Result
19
14
Select a metric for analysis
Attack
Possession and style
Discipline
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Goals
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Sample settings
Sample: 20 events · all seasons and leagues
Combined for both teams
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Real Madrid
Across all matches
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Malaga
Across all matches
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These are the referee's detailed match statistics Real Madrid - Malaga 30.08.2026
We offer referee statistics on 3 indicators. Fill in the filters below to see the summary data
Select a metric for analysis
Fouls
Yellow cards
Red cards
Sample settings
Sample: 20 events · all seasons and leagues
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These are machine learning-based predictions (Machine Learning, ML)
ML predictions are an exclusive and unique feature of TheAnalytic. Our servers run special mathematical algorithms that calculate team strength and perform analysis based on pseudo-random event prediction algorithms. We don't take these predictions “somewhere”, we developed the system and implemented it ourselves, exclusively for our website. The algorithm uses machine learning technologies and conventional calculation methods. To help the community understand what we offer, we disclose the methodology in a separate article. Important! The match predictions we publish are not a call for betting and are intended solely for “highlight” You need matches or parameters for independent analysis. The ML system does not replace humans!
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Goals total
1x2 goals
Corners total
1x2 corners
Fouls total
Cards total
Sample settings
All outcomes · any probability · any odds
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All outcomes
Total Under
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Probability range
Probability from 60 to 100
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Odds from 1.3 to 6
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Bookmakers
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Match prediction value calculator
Thinking about your prediction for this match? Check the bookmaker's odds value using the calculator to determine whether a bet is worth making. The calculator will show the statistical probability of a winning bet and compare it to the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds. Learn more about how this tool works and become familiar with the algorithm for calculating the statistical rating.
These are detailed statistics of head-to-head meetings Real Madrid and Malaga before the match 30.08.2026
We offer team statistics for 9 metrics. Fill in the filters below to see summary data
Select a metric for analysis
Attack
Possession and style
Discipline
Defense
Goals
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Corners
Sample settings
Sample: 20 head-to-head meetings · all seasons and leagues
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This tool will help you find the right trend for a match Real Madrid - Malaga 30.08.2026
This tool, based on the entered probability, will show the trend operating within that probability for teams, referees, and championships. Learn more about how this tool works