“The home side wins more often” is one of the few football regularities that has held for decades and in every country. But how much more often depends on the league, the season, and even on whether spectators are allowed in. The table below is computed from the TheAnalytic database over finished matches and refreshed every day, so the figures are not “historical averages” but the current season.
The table
| League | Matches | Home | Draw | Away | Goals | Over 2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World · UEFA Champions League | 273 | 50.9% | 19.0% | 30.0% | 3.31 | 63.0% | 55.7% |
| World · World Cup | 100 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 30.0% | 3.02 | 58.0% | 54.0% |
| World · UEFA Europa League | 261 | 52.5% | 16.9% | 30.7% | 2.73 | 53.3% | 47.1% |
| England · Premier League | 373 | 41.8% | 28.4% | 29.8% | 2.76 | 55.0% | 57.4% |
| Germany · Bundesliga | 300 | 45.3% | 24.7% | 30.0% | 3.25 | 64.0% | 61.7% |
| Spain · La Liga | 379 | 49.6% | 23.7% | 26.6% | 2.72 | 51.2% | 55.9% |
| Italy · Serie A | 379 | 38.8% | 24.8% | 36.4% | 2.47 | 47.2% | 46.2% |
| Russia · Premier League | 237 | 43.5% | 26.6% | 30.0% | 2.51 | 46.8% | 52.3% |
| France · Ligue 1 | 301 | 42.5% | 26.6% | 30.9% | 2.81 | 53.5% | 51.8% |
| Belgium · Jupiler Pro League | 312 | 40.7% | 24.7% | 34.6% | 2.75 | 52.6% | 52.6% |
| Tajikistan · Vysshaya Liga | 129 | 36.4% | 32.6% | 31.0% | 2.64 | 43.4% | 50.4% |
| Portugal · Primeira Liga | 308 | 42.9% | 26.6% | 30.5% | 2.68 | 54.2% | 48.1% |
| Ukraine · Premier League | 241 | 36.1% | 29.5% | 34.4% | 2.50 | 47.3% | 41.9% |
| Netherlands · Eredivisie | 307 | 42.0% | 26.1% | 31.9% | 3.28 | 64.2% | 65.8% |
| Belgium · Challenger Pro League | 258 | 40.3% | 23.3% | 36.4% | 2.88 | 54.7% | 55.4% |
| Portugal · Liga 3 | 297 | 39.4% | 30.6% | 30.0% | 2.32 | 42.1% | 51.2% |
| Portugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | 181 | 43.1% | 24.3% | 32.6% | 2.49 | 42.5% | 45.9% |
| Portugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A | 180 | 43.9% | 27.8% | 28.3% | 2.32 | 43.9% | 47.2% |
| Portugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B | 175 | 44.6% | 33.7% | 21.7% | 2.27 | 40.6% | 49.1% |
| Portugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D | 173 | 41.0% | 30.1% | 28.9% | 2.47 | 50.9% | 52.0% |
| Argentina · Primera Nacional | 589 | 48.4% | 31.6% | 20.0% | 1.89 | 31.2% | 36.8% |
| England · Championship | 558 | 42.3% | 26.9% | 30.8% | 2.63 | 52.5% | 58.1% |
| Argentina · Liga Profesional Argentina | 511 | 41.5% | 29.4% | 29.2% | 2.03 | 34.1% | 41.7% |
| Argentina · Torneo Federal A | 502 | 52.4% | 29.9% | 17.7% | 1.95 | 32.9% | 34.9% |
| Argentina · Primera B Metropolitana | 466 | 38.2% | 32.4% | 29.4% | 2.01 | 32.2% | 41.4% |
| All leagues above | 7790 | 43.7% | 27.2% | 29.1% | 2.52 |
Finished matches of top leagues from 06.09.2025 to 06.09.2026, 7790 matches; the table is recomputed daily.
How to read it
- Home / Draw / Away is the share of matches with that result in regular time. They add up to 100%.
- Goals is the average total per match. Over 2.5 is the share of matches with three or more goals; BTTS is the share where both teams scored.
- Leagues are ordered by the site’s priority, not by the numbers. Only competitions with at least 30 matches played in the period are included: a 40% draw rate over 10 matches means nothing.
What the numbers usually show
In most European leagues the home side wins 40–47% of matches, the away side 27–33%, the rest are draws. The difference between leagues is noticeable: in competitions with long journeys and strong crowds the advantage is higher, in compact countries with an even field it is lower. Cup competitions and European competitions fall outside this picture: the pairings there are unequal in strength, and “home advantage” gets mixed with the class gap.
The average total is the most stable of these figures: for a given league it rarely moves by more than 0.2 goals from season to season. The BTTS share follows the total, but not one to one: a low-scoring league can have a high BTTS rate if goals are spread evenly rather than coming in routs.
Why it is useful
Bookmakers know these rates better than any website, so the table alone does not produce “value bets”. Its use is different. First, it is a baseline for a specific match: if a team wins 70% at home in a league where the home side wins 42%, that is a strong signal; 50% in a league at 48% is not. Second, it is a sanity check for any pick, your own or someone else’s: an author with 80% of bets on away sides is going against the base rate and should have a reason. How accurately the market builds these probabilities into the odds is shown in the study on favourites and the closing line.
About the sample
The period and the number of matches are stated below the table. Early in the season the samples are short and the numbers drift; by winter they settle. Only matches with the status “finished” and a known score are counted; postponed, cancelled and technical results are excluded. What the dataset contains and where its gaps are is described in the article on data sources.