League Cup
27.08 · 21:30
· Finished
Chelsea
2 : 0
Luton
1
pick on the match
0
disagree with the model
Average odds 1.83.
Picks on the match
1 locked before kick-off; a row leads to the breakdown
Author
Stake
Odds
Confidence
Under 3.5
1.83
low
Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Total goals (match): Under 3.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
82.6%
exp. goals
2.73
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
30.12.23
3:2
Over 2.5 won
25.08.23
3:0
Over 2.5 won
02.03.22
3:2
Over 2.5 won
24.01.21
3:1
Over 2.5 won