Premier League
28.08 · 21:45
· Finished
Holywell
3 : 5
Caernarfon Town
2
picks on the match
1
disagree with the model
Average odds 2.13.
Picks on the match
2 locked before kick-off; a row leads to the breakdown
Author
Stake
Odds
Confidence
Over 2.5
1.39
medium
Under 2.5
2.86
low
Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Total goals (match): Over 2.5
1 author
50%
Total goals (match): Under 2.5
1 author
50%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
83.4%
exp. goals
4.32
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
10.09.25
2:2
Over 2.5 won