La Liga
31.08 · 22:30
· Finished
Barcelona
5 : 2
Rayo Vallecano
11.12
X11.5
226.5
1
pick on the match
0
disagree with the model
Average odds 1.64.
Picks on the match
1 locked before kick-off; a row leads to the breakdown
Author
Stake
Odds
Confidence
Under 4.5
1.64
low
Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Total goals (match): Under 4.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
81.9%
exp. goals
2.99
edge
-13.2%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
22.03.26
1:0
Under 2.5
31.08.25
1:1
Under 2.5
17.02.25
1:0
Under 2.5
27.08.24
2:1
Over 2.5 won