League Two
01.09 · 21:45
· Finished
Swindon Town
3 : 1
Port Vale
13.42
X3.53
22.13
1
pick on the match
1
disagree with the model
Average odds 2.72.
Picks on the match
1 locked before kick-off; a row leads to the breakdown
Author
Stake
Odds
Confidence
1
2.72
medium
Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Match result: 1
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
75.4%
exp. goals
2.58
edge
-3.5%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
08.02.25
3:3
Over 2.5 won
28.09.24
1:2
Over 2.5 won
19.05.22
0:1
Under 2.5
15.05.22
2:1
Over 2.5 won