Premier League
05.09 · 14:30
· Finished
Newcastle
2 : 2
Bournemouth
12.15
X3.8
23.48
1
pick on the match
0
disagree with the model
Average odds 1.28.
Picks on the match
1 locked before kick-off; a row leads to the breakdown
Author
Stake
Odds
Confidence
Under 5.5
1.28
low
Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Yellow cards over/under: Under 5.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
83.8%
exp. goals
2.99
edge
-5.3%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
18.04.26
1:2
Over 2.5 won
10.01.26
2:2
Over 2.5 won
21.09.25
0:0
Under 2.5
18.01.25
1:4
Over 2.5 won