Premier League
31.08 · 22:00
· Finished
Aston Villa
0 : 1
Arsenal
16.5
X4.6
21.56
1
pick on the match
0
disagree with the model
Average odds 2.01.
Picks on the match
1 locked before kick-off; a row leads to the breakdown
Author
Stake
Odds
Confidence
Over 9.5
2.01
low
Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Corners over/under: Over 9.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
80.1%
exp. goals
2.62
edge
-4.7%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
30.12.25
1:4
Over 2.5 won
06.12.25
2:1
Over 2.5 won
18.01.25
2:2
Over 2.5 won
24.08.24
0:2
Under 2.5