Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Total goals (match): Under 3.5
1 author
50%
Yellow cards over/under: Over 2.5
1 author
50%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
81.8%
exp. goals
2.68
edge
-5.9%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
23.05.26
4:2
Over 2.5 won
18.03.26
1:2
Over 2.5 won
27.08.25
4:2
Over 2.5 won
28.06.25
1:2
Over 2.5 won