Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Exact number of goals (home): Under 1.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalyticD model
Under 3.5
Total goals (match)
probability
84.1%
exp. goals
2.25
edge
+11.9%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
15.03.26
1:1
Under 2.5
14.09.25
3:4
Over 2.5 won
15.04.25
1:0
Under 2.5
27.10.24
2:1
Over 2.5 won