10 September 2026. The consensus shows which outcome most authors chose and how unanimous they are. Alongside it is what the TheAnalytic models think of this match.
The share of picks placed on the most popular outcome of the match. A high percentage means the authors agree, not that they are right: the more of them converge, the lower the odds usually are.
The TheAnalytic models estimate market probabilities on their own and show the outcome they are meaningfully confident in — not trivial lines such as “over 0.5 goals”. There are two sources: the rating model covers corners, fouls and cards, while Dixon-Coles covers the match result and goals. Both publish on the same terms as people and stand in the shared rating.
Whether the model considers the same outcome most likely as the majority of authors. A disagreement is nobody’s mistake but a reason to look closer: disagreements are exactly where it shows who adds value.