FA Cup
05.09 · 15:00
· Finished
Curzon Ashton
1 : 2
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Bradford (Park Avenue)
11.5
X4.35
25.69
1
pick on the match
1
disagree with the model
Average odds 2.32.
Picks on the match
1 locked before kick-off; a row leads to the breakdown
Author
Stake
Odds
Confidence
Over 3.5
2.32
low
Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Total goals (match): Over 3.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
83.8%
exp. goals
3.29
edge
-7%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
01.04.23
0:0
Under 2.5
08.10.22
1:2
Over 2.5 won
12.03.22
3:2
Over 2.5 won
25.09.21
2:1
Over 2.5 won