FA Cup
04.09 · 21:45
· Finished
Aveley
4 : 2
Cheshunt
11.63
X4.8
25
1
pick on the match
0
disagree with the model
Average odds 2.35.
Picks on the match
1 locked before kick-off; a row leads to the breakdown
Author
Stake
Odds
Confidence
Under 2.5
2.35
high
Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Total goals (match): Under 2.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
85%
exp. goals
2.55
edge
-4.8%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
21.03.26
3:0
Over 2.5 won
24.02.26
0:2
Under 2.5
03.08.24
1:1
Under 2.5