Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Exact number of goals (home): Under 1.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalyticD model
Under 2.5
Total goals (match)
probability
78.2%
exp. goals
1.89
edge
+30.6%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
31.05.26
0:0
Under 2.5
05.04.26
2:2
Over 2.5 won