Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Match result: 2
1 author
50%
Exact number of goals (home): Over 1.5
1 author
50%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
76.1%
exp. goals
2.92
edge
-9.4%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
30.05.26
0:2
Under 2.5
04.04.26
1:3
Over 2.5 won