Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Exact number of goals (away): Under 1.5
1 author
50%
Total goals (match): Under 4.5
1 author
50%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalyticD model
Over 2.5
Total goals (match)
probability
80.4%
exp. goals
3.75
edge
-10.8%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
22.08.26
1:4
Over 2.5 won
14.06.26
3:4
Over 2.5 won
21.09.25
0:3
Over 2.5 won
27.06.25
3:0
Over 2.5 won