Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Exact number of goals (home): Over 1.5
1 author
50%
Total goals (match): Under 3.5
1 author
50%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalyticD model
Over 2.5
Total goals (match)
probability
67.6%
exp. goals
3.25
edge
-14.1%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
01.08.26
3:2
Over 2.5 won
22.05.26
1:2
Over 2.5 won