Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Exact number of goals (away): Over 0.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalyticD model
Over 2.5
Total goals (match)
probability
75.3%
exp. goals
3.32
edge
+39.3%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
01.03.26
2:3
Over 2.5 won
18.10.25
2:2
Over 2.5 won