Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Exact number of goals (home): Under 1.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalyticD model
Over 2.5
Total goals (match)
probability
65.5%
exp. goals
3.20
edge
-14.9%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
24.03.26
3:2
Over 2.5 won
27.09.24
2:1
Over 2.5 won
18.04.24
2:3
Over 2.5 won