Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Exact number of goals (home): Under 1.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalyticD model
Under 3.5
Total goals (match)
probability
60.5%
exp. goals
3.07
edge
-6.2%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
14.04.22
1:2
Over 2.5 won
09.03.22
1:0
Under 2.5