Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Total goals (match): Under 2.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalyticD model
Under 3.5
Total goals (match)
probability
78.7%
exp. goals
2.44
edge
+15.7%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
29.04.26
7:1
Over 2.5 won
13.02.26
0:0
Under 2.5
23.10.25
3:2
Over 2.5 won
03.04.25
2:2
Over 2.5 won