Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Total goals (match): Under 2.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
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TheAnalyticD model
Under 3.5
Total goals (match)
probability
81.9%
exp. goals
2.25
edge
-0.1%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
20.05.26
2:1
Over 2.5 won
04.04.26
4:0
Over 2.5 won
04.10.25
0:1
Under 2.5
24.05.25
1:2
Over 2.5 won