Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Total goals (match): Under 2.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalyticD model
Under 3.5
Total goals (match)
probability
83.2%
exp. goals
2.14
edge
-0.2%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
16.02.26
2:1
Over 2.5 won
04.10.25
0:0
Under 2.5