Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Total goals (match): Under 2.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalyticD model
Under 3.5
Total goals (match)
probability
75.1%
exp. goals
2.40
edge
-8.4%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
15.03.26
1:1
Under 2.5
05.03.26
0:2
Under 2.5
05.02.26
0:1
Under 2.5
19.12.25
0:2
Under 2.5