Matches
/
Premier League
/
GAP Connah S Quay FC — Haverfordwest County AFC
·
Match statistics on TheAnalytic →
Premier League
04.09 · 21:45
· Finished
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1 : 1
Haverfordwest County AFC
11.45
X5.92
210.4
1
pick on the match
0
disagree with the model
Average odds 2.58.
Picks on the match
1 locked before kick-off; a row leads to the breakdown
Author
Stake
Odds
Confidence
Under 1.5
2.58
high
Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Exact number of goals (home): Under 1.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
81.2%
exp. goals
2.52
edge
-4.2%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
25.10.25
3:3
Over 2.5 won
20.09.25
3:1
Over 2.5 won
12.10.24
0:0
Under 2.5
11.08.24
0:1
Under 2.5