Premier League
31.08 · 17:00
· Finished
Caernarfon Town
2 : 3
The New Saints
15.8
X4.4
21.55
2
picks on the match
0
disagree with the model
Average odds 2.01.
Picks on the match
2 locked before kick-off; a row leads to the breakdown
Author
Stake
Odds
Confidence
Over 3.5
2.50
high
Under 10.5
1.52
low
Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Total goals (match): Over 3.5
1 author
50%
Corners over/under: Under 10.5
1 author
50%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
80.3%
exp. goals
3.45
edge
-6%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
27.03.26
0:4
Over 2.5 won
20.02.26
1:2
Over 2.5 won
28.11.25
0:2
Under 2.5
04.11.25
0:3
Over 2.5 won