Premier League
28.08 · 22:00
· Finished
Crystal Palace
1 : 4
Manchester City
1
pick on the match
0
disagree with the model
Average odds 1.41.
Picks on the match
1 locked before kick-off; a row leads to the breakdown
Author
Stake
Odds
Confidence
Over 2.5
1.41
medium
Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Yellow cards over/under: Over 2.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
76.9%
exp. goals
2.61
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
13.05.26
0:3
Over 2.5 won
14.12.25
0:3
Over 2.5 won
17.05.25
1:0
Under 2.5
12.04.25
2:5
Over 2.5 won