Premier League
30.08 · 16:00
· Finished
Chelsea
4 : 3
Brighton
11.95
X4
24.11
1
pick on the match
0
disagree with the model
Average odds 1.90.
Picks on the match
1 locked before kick-off; a row leads to the breakdown
Author
Stake
Odds
Confidence
Over 9.5
1.90
low
Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Corners over/under: Over 9.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
81.8%
exp. goals
2.94
edge
-3.5%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
21.04.26
0:3
Over 2.5 won
27.09.25
1:3
Over 2.5 won
14.02.25
0:3
Over 2.5 won
08.02.25
1:2
Over 2.5 won