Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Exact number of goals (home): Over 1.5
1 author
33%
Total goals (match): Under 2.5
1 author
33%
Corners over/under: Over 9.5
1 author
33%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalytic model
Over 1.5
Total goals (match)
probability
80.8%
exp. goals
3.28
edge
-5.5%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
04.02.26
3:0
Over 2.5 won
12.02.23
2:1
Over 2.5 won
17.07.22
0:0
Under 2.5
17.08.20
2:3
Over 2.5 won