Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Total goals (match): Under 3.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalyticD model
Over 2.5
Total goals (match)
probability
63.6%
exp. goals
3.12
edge
-20.5%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
08.05.26
3:2
Over 2.5 won
12.08.24
1:0
Under 2.5
14.04.24
3:1
Over 2.5 won