Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Exact number of goals (home): Over 1.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalyticD model
Over 2.5
Total goals (match)
probability
70.4%
exp. goals
3.32
edge
-0.7%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
06.07.26
1:1
Under 2.5
04.05.26
2:2
Over 2.5 won
01.09.25
1:0
Under 2.5
07.07.25
2:2
Over 2.5 won