Where the authors lean
Distribution of picks across selections
Total goals (match): Under 2.5
1 author
100%
Your own pick on the match
Entries are closed: the scheduled kick-off time has passed. Picks published before it remain above unchanged — even if the match itself was delayed or rescheduled.
TheAnalyticD model
Under 3.5
Total goals (match)
probability
80.3%
exp. goals
2.31
edge
+6.8%
The model disagrees with the majority
Its choice differs from the authors’ top selection — matches like this are exactly where it shows who adds value.
Head-to-head
21.04.26
0:1
Under 2.5
08.02.26
2:1
Over 2.5 won
01.02.26
1:1
Under 2.5
29.06.24
2:1
Over 2.5 won